The phrase “Garbage in, garbage out” is often used to express concern about the validity of a model or its input parameters. Whilst one should pay attention to populate model inputs with sensible (perhaps “best guess”) values, what is less appreciated, is that the output case of a model will generally not correspond to the input case. Thus a model whose inputs are at their most likely values will not generally show the most likely values for the calculations. This fact is a key reason to conduct advanced sensitivity analysis and risk modelling on a model. [Read more…] about Garbage In, Garbage Out. Most Likely Values in …What Comes Out?