Archives for 2010

A good knowledge of core functions (SUM, IF etc) is often sufficient to build Excel models in a range of applications. For example and integrated financial statement model or cash flow valuation rarely requires more than these. However, more powerful models – including situations where models are desired to be more flexible – require knowledge of a wider range of functions. [Read more…] about Up-skilling in Excel: What do I need to Know?

This is the seventh and (for the moment) final set of self-diagnosis questions in the series on risk modelling and covers some basic questions relating to core applications of other products in the DecisionTools Suite. Test your knowledge, and see if you need some training!. [Read more…] about Self-Test Questions 7: The DecisionTools Suite™

My recently launched service to provide web training and consultations about @RISK™ and Excel modelling has sparked good interest. In particular, it allows for 1:1 consultations on modelling topics with people all around the world. I use a particular web-platform for these which allows for video conferencing, as well as document sharing and control passing. This blog described some of the features and benefits of this approach. [Read more…] about Web Consultations on @RISK, Excel Modelling and Other Applications

November was a busy conference month. As well as attending the IE conference on Financial Forecasting and Planning, the SMI Financial Modelling in Oil and Gas, I also spoke on Real Options Modelling and ran a three-hour workshop on Excel Modelling.

[Read more…] about Attendance of Financial Planning and Modelling Conferences

This is the sixth set of self-diagnosis questions in the series and covers some basic questions relating to core applications of @RISK. This completes questions relating to @RISK, and the last positing before Christmas in the series will be about the DecisionTools Suite.

[Read more…] about Self-Test Questions 6: Applications of @RISK

This set of self-diagnosis questions contineus the series on risk modelling with a set of questions specifically relating to using @RISK in practice.

[Read more…] about Self-Test Questions 5: Further Uses of @RISK

Today sees the launch of my Interactive Web Consultation service. This allows one-to-one consultations using a high-quality internet video conferencing services over the internet in which applications (such as Excel, Excel-add-ins such as @RISK, PowerPoint and Word) can be shared. This provides an opportunity to jointly work on a model or document. [Read more…] about Launch of Web Consultation Service

Following the earlier blog about the use of user-defined functions in VBA code to model time delays in Excel, I am here posting a similar example, but which is more general and allows for both lead times, as well as lag time; that is projects or cash flows can brought forward according to some allocation mechanism as well as delayed. The advantage of this extra flexibility is to avoid having to set up models in which the base case is the most optimistic one possible, and in which any deviation is necessarily a delay. Rather, the base case can be more flexibly defined and the used case adapted from that in either time direction (for each variable). [Read more…] about Modelling Time Leads and Lags

This blog continues the series on self-diagnosis questions about risk modelling covers issues relating to the use of key probability distributions within @RISK. There will be three further postings on this topics priort to Christmas, to complete the series. I’ll also be posting more on modelling leads and lag times through VBA code. [Read more…] about Self-Test Questions 4: Further Uses of Distributions in @RISK

Streamlining a model is important to reduce error, time consumption and its overall complexity. As mentioned in an earlier blog, one key area where models can become large, complex, and inflexible, it in the implementation of time delays, such as where a project start date may need to be changed (or is uncertain), where receivables may be received at a future date that may need to be changed, or where a quantity needs to be allocated across time, such as for depreciation schedules, tax calculations, or in insurance loss triangles. In this blog, we show how such topics can most efficiently be implemented through the use of user-defined functions in VBA. [Read more…] about Modelling Time Delays and Loss Triangles

This third set of self-diagnosis questions about risk modelling covers issues relating to the key probability distributions. Once again, test yourself to see how much you know!! [Read more…] about Self-Test Questions 3: Probability Distributions: Key Types

This second set of self-diagnosis questions about risk modelling covers issues relating to key terms relating to probability distributions. The blog following this one will cover topics relating to the key types of individual distributions. [Read more…] about Self-Test Questions 2: Probability Distributions – Key Terms

Leading up to Christmas, I will be posting a series of blogs containing a set of questions in topics related to risk modelling, probability distributions, their use within @RISK™, key features of @RISK and its applications, as well as issues relating to the wider set of products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. These questions can be used to test your knowledge!

[Read more…] about Blog Series: Questions for Self-Diagnosis on Risk Modelling

When running a Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK, multiple simulations are a useful tool to allow the comparison of simulation results when there is a change of parameters or distributions in a model (and to conduct simple optimisation analysis). Whilst simple to implement, there are a number of simple tips that can be useful to remember when doing so. [Read more…] about Using Multiple Simulations in @RISK™

When parameterising a probability distribution for Monte Carlo simulation modelling, such as when using @RISK™ or RiskSolver™, one common issue is whether to use a P50 or a most likely value. This applies especially when using Triangular, PERT or Lognormal distributions. There are advantages and disadvantages of each. [Read more…] about Should I Use the P50 or the Most Likely Value for Inputs?